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It’s hard to see anyone breaking the Pogacar-Vingegaard duopoly next year but could the Manx Missile come back for more?
The 2025 Tour de France route has been announced in Paris, with the race almost certain to come down to another slugfest between three-time winner Tadej Pogačar and two-time winner Jonas Vingegaard.
Can anyone else put themselves in the mix? How will Ineos Grenadiers approach it? And what can cycling fans look forward to in general from the 112th edition of cycling’s most famous race? Telegraph Sport stares into its crystal ball:
Starting on Saturday July 5 in Lille and concluding 21 stages later in Paris, the 2025 Tour takes place entirely on French soil and returns to its traditional finish in the French capital after ending in Nice this year due to the Olympics.
Unlike the brutally hot and hilly 2024 grand depart in Italy, the first yellow jersey of next year’s race looks set to go to a sprinter. In fact, Pogačar and Co might even have to wait as long as a week to challenge for yellow, although do not bet on it. There is a 33km time trial in Caen on stage five, but it does not look hard enough to really shake up the standings.
Weeks two and three, though, will certainly sort the wheat from the chaff. Three summit finishes in the Pyrenees, including a time trial to Peyragudes altiport, come before an ascent of Ventoux, where a Tour stage will finish for the first time since Chris Froome ran up it in 2016.
From the “Giant of Provence”, the peloton heads towards the Alps and two further summit finishes, on the Col de la Loze – which holds happy memories for Vingegaard as it was where the Dane decisively claimed victory in 2023 – and at La Plagne.
Not unless they fall off their bikes. Remco Evenepoel impressed many at this year’s Tour, finishing third on debut. And Primoz Roglic has suffered dreadful luck in France. But it still feels as if they are a good chunk behind the leading duo.
Pogačar, in particular, has just completed one of the most dominant seasons in cycling history, winning at will, be it grand tour or one-day racing. Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike) has already started winter training early in an effort to close the gap, which by his own admission grew this year, Vingegaard’s big crash in the Basque Country in the spring notwithstanding.
“By starting the training so early, we can create a very good foundation,” Vingegaard’s coach Tim Heemskerk said in a recent interview with Velo. “We need that if we want to close the gap with Pogačar. We can’t sit back and say that Jonas would have beaten Pogačar without that fall.
“We have to accept that Pogačar has raised the bar even higher this year. We have to look at everything to beat him. We know that we have a big task ahead of us.”
Owner Sir Jim Ratcliffe wants to win the Tour de France. But the problem is he does not have the riders to do it. Ineos are in a funk. The team announced another big shake-up of its staff recently, which means the transitional years are likely to continue for a while yet.
In terms of the overall, Carlos Rodriguez has finished fifth and seventh in the last two years and the Spaniard is still only 23. But it is hard to see him closing the gap to the leading contenders sufficiently to challenge.
Geraint Thomas, the team’s most reliable grand tour rider of recent years, will be in the final year of his contract. And Tom Pidcock might not be at the team at all. A major ruck between Ineos’ star rider and team management means he has been exploring exit options.
If he does ride, would he try for GC? Now that the Olympics are over, perhaps he could dedicate himself fully to the task? It feels as if stage-hunting is probably the most likely target for the British superteam.
The most successful Tour de France stage winner of all time was present at the Palais de Congrès in Paris and offered a cryptic response when asked about his future plans. Cavendish, of course, is in the final year of his career.
Having delayed his retirement by 12 months to win a record 35th Tour stage, he can ostensibly retire happy. But it seems he is still figuring out exactly what his future plans look like.
“After last year I was exhausted, you know how it is,” he told the host of the Tour route unveiling. “I said ‘never again’. Then I went on holiday with my wife and kids and really relaxed for the first time in years. I saw things a bit differently.”
Asked whether he might ride on, he replied: “Yeah, we’ll see.” It is thought he might carry on doing some riding or racing for his own enjoyment.
With the addition of a ninth stage in 2025, the Tour de France Femmes continue to grow, slowly but surely. The fourth edition of what has rapidly become the biggest race in women’s cycling features over 17000m of climbing, finishing with a brutal final weekend which takes in a summit finish on the 2,000m Col de la Madeleine and then a final day schlep over the infamous Col de Joux Plane.
It’s a serious route, although Jumbo-Visma team manager Rutger Tijssen did describe the lack of a time trial as “a bit surprising and, frankly, a bit disappointing.”
Expect Demi Vollering, who has completed a move from SD Worx to FDJ-Suez, to challenge for the title she lost narrowly to Kasia Niewadoma (Canyon-SRAM) this year.